There is little consensus among oil market watchers on the potential impact of a widespread freeze in production volumes as oil ministers prepare to meet in Doha on 17 April.

Representatives from Opec and non-Opec exporters, including Saudi Arabia and Russia, will meet to negotiate an action plan to reduce global oversupply and prop up the ailing crude market.

Brent has recovered from a low of $27 a barrel earlier this year to a 2016 high of more than $44 on 13 April as the market anticipates a positive decision in Doha. At least 15 oil-producing countries are expected to be at the meeting.

The Paris-based International Energy Agency (IEA) poured cold water on the potential impact of the talks, saying on 14 April that it would have little impact on supply.

The IEA pointed out that Russia and Saudi Arabia are already producing at near-record levels and the only potential rise in output will come from Iran, which has indicated it will not back the deal. The IEA said it is unlikely the market will rebalance before 2017.

Analysts from Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BAML) are more bullish on the Doha talks. In a note on 12 April, the US bank outlined four possible scenarios: back to a price war; no output freeze; a soft output freeze; and a hard output freeze with some enforcement mechanism.

“In our view, the last two scenarios would send Brent prices above $50 a barrel in relatively short order, while the first two outcomes could lead to a price drop below $40 a barrel,” the analysts estimated. BAML expects crude prices to trade above an average of $50 a barrel in 2017.

The US’ Fitch Ratings this week revised its assumptions for crude prices down to $35 a barrel for 2016 and $45 a barrel for 2017.