Behind bars in a Cairo courthouse on 16 May sat a man who two years earlier had been at the helm of a new Egypt as its first democratically elected leader. But when the judge handed Mohamed Mursi a death sentence for his involvement in a mass prison break in 2011, it reaffirmed the drastic changes that have swept across the country in recent years.

The verdict was delivered just weeks ahead of the 30 June anniversary of the former president’s dramatic removal from power, and risks reigniting unrest at a crucial time for the North African country.

In the hope of attracting billions of dollars of investment, President Abdul Fattah al-Sisi has promised the international community a stable business environment, following the Egypt Economic Development Conference (EEDC) held in Sharm el-Sheikh in March this year. Any return to the protests and street battles of 2011-13 would undo all the progress made of late.

Brotherhood treatment

The court decision is reminiscent of the Muslim Brotherhood’s treatment under previous presidents and stands in stark contrast to the punishment given to Hosni Mubarak, who was the same month sentenced to three years in jail with a likely release following four years of detention.

The Brotherhood has dismissed the verdict and called on the Egyptian people “to reclaim the democracy they fought so hard for”. In a series of statements released by several prominent members of Egypt’s Islamist community, there have been warnings of a backlash of violence and opposition.

The timing and manner in which the sentence was handed to Mursi may prove to be a tactless move by the judiciary and will undermine efforts by the authorities for any sort of reconciliation process with the opposition.

Such is the Cairo-centric nature of Egypt’s institutions that the sentence was not disputed and local media coverage has hailed it as an end to the Brotherhood. Others have said there is the risk it will create an icon out of Mursi, which could haunt the current leadership as many rural areas of the country remain strongholds of the group.

We were planning on taking to the streets on 30 June, but now we will [do so] with more fire in our bellies

Member of the Muslim Brotherhood

While 30 June will be celebrated by most in Egypt, there is still a significant portion of society that will be looking to use the date to highlight the government’s political oppression. At the centre of recent discontent is the manner in which the judiciary has been handing out death sentences. Espionage, national security and claims of foreign influence have been used to sentence more than 500 people in the past year. 

A recent ruling by the constitutional court to ban and brand football fan clubs as terrorist organisations further illustrates the extent of the clampdown on public dissent, which could backfire and actually provoke unrest, derailing the government’s economic aspirations.

A member of the Brotherhood, who has chosen to remain anonymous for security reasons, tells MEED: “We were [already] planning on taking to the streets on 30 June, but now we will be doing so with more fire in our bellies. I expect we will see 50 per cent more people at these protests because of the court’s decision.”

On the other hand, while many have predicted a wave of demonstrations following Mursi’s sentence, major cities across Egypt have seen a decline in street protests and general public disobedience against the government. “People just want to get on with their lives,” says Angus Blair, president of Cairo-based research agency Signet Institute.

Leveraging verdict

Despite widespread political and civic apathy following four years of instability and economic despair, the verdict against Mursi may be leveraged by other groups that are not directly affiliated with the Brotherhood.

“If the higher religious authority in Egypt does give the green light for Mursi’s execution, matters may take a different turn as a vast number of young people who are not supporters of the Brotherhood may use this as an opportunity to voice their concerns through ‘the counter-revolutionary movement’,” says Ahmed Ghoneim, analyst and Egypt expert at UK-based security research firm Other Solutions.

Al-Sisi’s support has been rooted in his economic plan for the country. The 2015/16 budget aims for real GDP growth to accelerate to 4.5-5 per cent and the president still seems to be riding the populist wave of optimism that has followed the EEDC.

Yet underneath this is a largely religious population still struggling amid a lack of housing and employment opportunities. There could be a return to the polarisation of society seen in 2012/13 if the situation on the ground does not improve and the state is seen to be reverting to Mubarak-era policing policies.

The Brotherhood’s biggest regional ally, Turkey, was quick to voice its condemnation of Mursi’s sentence. President Recep Erdogan referred to the court ruling as “capital punishment against democracy”. He also called on governments in the West to take a stance against the sentencing, criticising their silence, although the US released a statement saying it was “deeply concerned” over the verdict.

“Al-Sisi is unlikely to be concerned by the comments coming out of Ankara,” says Yasser Hassan, a Cairo-based lawyer and senior member of the Al-Wafd Party. “Relations with Turkey will not concern Al-Sisi because of Erdogan’s indiscriminate support of the Brotherhood.”

Following the sentencing, security will remain a priority for the government, which is desperately trying to restore stability and confidence both for citizens and international investors.

In March, with the support of the UAE and Saudi Arabia, Al-Sisi invited the international investment community to attend the EEDC in an attempt to reintroduce the country’s ailing economy to the business world. The conference was held in the coastal city of Sharm el-Sheikh on the Sinai Peninsula, not far from where the majority of terrorist attacks in the country have taken place over the past few years.

Most assaults have been in northern Sinai and, while it is difficult to attribute the violence to a single group, many attacks have been claimed by Ansar Beit al-Maqdis, which has pledged its allegiance to the jihadist group Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (Isis). There have also been several smaller improvised explosive device attacks in Cairo, the Nile delta region and Upper Egypt.

Militant groups in Sinai continue to threaten the country’s stability. Yet it is difficult to make a connection between groups such as Ansar Beit al-Maqdis and the Brotherhood. “Attacks are sporadic and random; they often have an underlining economic and social motive rather than a wider political goal like you see in Libya,” says a prominent member of the banned April 6 Movement. But the connections that can be made are the disenfranchisement and discontent these groups feel towards the current government that is starting to sound, feel and act like the Mubarak regime.

“It is likely the militant group Ansar Beit al-Maqdis will use such questionable decisions as propaganda for recruitment to increase and legitimise their operations against military and police targets,” says Ghoneim.

Reigniting violence

Egypt enjoys the support of Saudi Arabia and the UAE in fighting the threat of violent extremism, and this has provided Al-Sisi with the confidence to step up a domestic campaign against terrorism. But there is a fear the court decision may reignite violence in the country’s major cities, which has seen a decline in recent months. Some analysts have described this as a dangerous move that will re-energise the ‘anti-coup movement’.

After securing $130bn-worth of investment pledges during the EEDC, Egypt must ensure it does everything it can to commit to the promise of stability.

International companies that have either never operated in the country or pulled out following the 2011 revolution have been optimistic about its resurgence. But there are some that remain apprehensive and fear a worsening security situation. With the latest turn of events, many will be relieved they have trodden cautiously.

Al-Sisi has not provided details of how he plans to achieve the social cohesion required for stability, and with no reconciliation strategy outlined, it is difficult to see how the Brotherhood will fit into Egyptian society. The verdict against Mursi illustrates an age old tactic that has been used against the group since its inception. But a zero-tolerance approach may backfire in a new Egypt.

The important test for Cairo will come next month, with the looming flashpoint of the 30 June anniversary.