On the other hand, if war breaks out in Iraq while Venezuelan production is still low, supply would be severely stretched, to the limit of even what Saudi Arabia could add to output. The IEA estimated spare capacity at 2.3 million b/d, just under the 2.5 million b/d Iraq is currently pumping. Global oil output in January rose 1.2 million b/d to 77.6 million b/d, with the extra output coming chiefly from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the UAE and Nigeria. A cold winter in the northern hemisphere and a recovery in the aviation industry increased demand, although a sluggish global economy prevented it from reaching historic highs. Demand forecast for whole of the first quarter is forecast at 78.2 million b/d while demand growth for the year as a whole is estimated at 1.1 million b/d. ‘Inland deliveries of oil products posted their steepest gains of the year in December rising by an aggregate 3.6 per cent from 2001,’ the IEA reported. Average oil prices in January were $32.99 for WTI, $31.32 for dated Brent and $28.02 for Dubai. Refining margins improved as product prices rose faster than those of crude.