All eyes are on Vienna this week as Opec exporters meet to discuss a potential deal to cut oil production and tackle chronic global oversupply.

Brent prices dropped early on 29 November ahead of the expected decision the following day on doubts that Opec producers will agree a meaningful production cut.

Prices have largely fluctuated within a range of $45-50 a barrel throughout November, but some analysts have warned Brent could drop to under $40 if no deal is reached in Vienna.

At a meeting in Algiers in September, Opec agreed to slash output that at today’s levels would mean reducing volumes by between 200,000 barrels a day (b/d) and 700,000 b/d.

Prices increased on 28 November as Iraq and Iran indicated they would be willing to hold production as part of an Opec-wide freeze. However, Libya and Nigeria, which have experienced lower production due to political instability, have both asked for exemptions as they boost output.

Russia, the world’s largest non-Opec producer, has also entered discussions, but has indicated it plans to increase production in 2017.

Many analysts are sceptical that a meaningful production cut could be reached and that, more likely, a face-saving announcement will be made that will have little material impact on the market.

“A deal will be extremely challenging to deliver given political differences between members, particularly Saudi Arabia and Iran, and several Opec nations actively trying to increase production – Iran, Iraq, Nigeria and Libya,” says Spencer Welch, director at US-based consultancy IHS Energy.

“An agreement of some sort is more likely than not to emerge this week, as there are intense financial, political and credibility pressures on Opec to strike a deal even if it is flawed.”

The decision, or lack of one, from the Vienna meeting is expected to be announced on 30 November.