Oman Power and Water Procurement Company (OPWP) has revised down its power demand forecast for the main interconnected system (MIS) and Salalah.

In its 7-Year statement, OPWP has said that it expects peak demand in MIS to increase by 8 per cent per year from 3,845MW in 2011 to 6,582MW in 2018. Under a low-case scenario, peak demand would grow by 6 per cent per year, while under a high-case scenario, peak demand would grow by 11 per cent per year.

In the separate Salalah system, peak demand is forecasted to grow at a rate of 10 per cent per year from 348MW in 2011 to 689MW in 2018. Under a low-case scenario, demand would be expected to rise by 7 per cent per year. Should more rapid industrialisation take place, demand could grow by as much as 17 per cent per year.

The projections reflect more conservative expectations for the growth of power demand in the sultanate. In the previous year’s forecast, OPWP forecasted peak demand at 6,371MW in MIS by 2017, whereas the most recent report puts this figure at 6,151MW. In Salalah, peak electricity demand was expected to grow to 719MW by 2017. In the latest report, OPWP expects demand to reach 689MW by 2017.

Several projects are planned for commissioning before 2018 including Barka III, Sohar II and Sur totaling 3,490MW. Oman is also planning to commission a 200MW solar project once government approval is secured. Power purchase agreements totaling 1,432MW are due to expire, but OPWP could opt to extend the agreements.

In Salalah, an independent water and power project (IWPP) is due to come online in 2012. OPWP plans to tender a contract for the expansion of the project by 2016. If power demand approaches a high-case scenario in Salalah, the extension project may be needed by 2015, with a third plant needed by 2018 too.

While demand for power is expected to grow by 8 and 10 per cent per year in MIS and Salalah, demand for power is expected to increase at a slower rate due to efficiency improvements to Oman’s generation fleet. In MIS, fuel requirements are expected to grow by 5 per cent per year to 2018. Total gas consumption by power and water projects is expected to grow from 6 billion standard cubic metres (Sm3) in 2011 to 8.2 billion Sm3 in 2018. Salalah’s gas requirements are forecasted to grow by 4 per cent per year reaching 8 billion Sm3 by 2018.

OPWP’s current gas allowance is sufficient up to 2018 under the low-case scenario, up to 2016 under the expected case and up to 2015 under the high-case scenario. OPWP is relying on new agreements with the Ministry of Gas or diversifying into the use of other fuel for its power plants.