The continued annual double-digit rise in passenger traffic at key hubs such as Dubai International and Abu Dhabi International could result in air space capacity being saturated sooner rather than later due to increased flights, according to Saj Ahmad, aviation analyst at London-based Strategic AeroResearch.

“This will cause delays and in turn hamper long-term growth and cause bottlenecks in the sky and on the ground,” Ahmad tells MEED.

”The reality is that countries like the UAE would be better served by diluting military air space for commercial use – inevitably. I think they will do it in time, but they appear to be in no rush to do so. And it’s that lack of movement that I fear will hinder growth and the possibility of Al-Maktoum International to get going by the middle of the next decade.”

Ahmad maintains that the GCC commercial aviation market is driven by frequency and not by high capacity. “Adding big jets like the A380 could help absorb demand up to a point… but since Dubai International stormed to the top of the passenger charts, average airplane seat size has been decreasing and frequencies are rising,” he says.

This trend highlights the need for a more efficient capacity management that would allow greater flight numbers to offer passengers more choices.

The number of aircraft on order by airlines in the Middle East, estimated between 1,200 and 1,300 as of October 2016, lends credence to Ahmad’s analysis.

Qatar Airways has the largest pipeline of aircraft on order in terms of volume; it has 369 planes on order worth an estimated $81bn at list prices. Dubai’s Emirates Airline has 240 planes pending delivery, including 62 A380s, worth an estimated total of $116bn. Abu Dhabi’s Etihad Airways has 178 planes on order, valued at $38bn, while low-cost carrier Flydubai has 100 aircraft pending delivery.

Iran’s key airlines are also expected to start taking delivery of more than 200 aircraft over the next few months, if aircraft manufacturers – primarily the US’ Boeing and France’s Airbus – obtain all the required regulatory clearances for delivering aircraft to the Islamic Republic.

“For me, the Dubai government should stop squandering money on projects like the canal and instead plough that money into rapidly expanding Al-Maktoum International so that the likes of Emirates and Flydubai can hone in on their organic growth strategies,” says Ahmad.

Another consultant tells MEED there is a need to urgently assess not merely airspace allocation, but also airspace management across the Middle East states. “We sit in a unique region where a plane is usually in a different airspace 20 minutes within take-off,” the consultant explains. “This situation requires a strong collaboration between the region’s aviation authorities sooner than later to avoid congestion in their airspace.”

Lorne Riley, Dubai Airports’ director for corporate communications, tells MEED the UAE’s aviation regulator, the General Civil Aviation Authority (GCAA), is working with all parties involved to deliver a strategy and plan that will unlock the airspace and efficiencies needed to deliver the capacity required to accommodate growth. “It is a significant challenge, but we are optimistic that progress will continue to be made in the years ahead,” says Riley.