Seldom before, if ever, has the world’s media reported the passing of a Gulf monarch as extensively as it covered the death of Saudi Arabia’s King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz al-Saud on 23 January.

It is an acknowledgement of the growing importance of the Gulf region to the global political and economic context. But it also shines a light on the importance of the transition now under way within the world’s biggest oil producer.

Saudi Arabia’s new monarch, King Salman bin Abdulaziz al-Saud, immediately pledged to continue the policies his half-brother set in motion, covering a wealth of economic, dynastic, ideological and religious issues that will go a long way to shaping the future of the Middle East.

Balancing act

The 79-year-old inherits a country facing an increasingly deep divide between modernisers calling for rapid reform, and traditionalists. And added to the economic uncertainty caused by falling oil prices, a low in relations with Tehran, wars in Syria and Iraq, and rising violence in neighbouring Yemen, the new king has an unenviable juggling act to perform.

Fully alert to the intense scrutiny it is receiving, it is not surprising that Riyadh moved rapidly to present a united front committed to continuity and stability. This is encapsulated by King Salman himself, regarded by many observers as someone who understands that social and cultural reforms are essential, but not at the expense of the values of Islamic traditionalists.

“[King] Salman specifically said he will not overturn [King] Abdullah’s policies,” says Bilal Saab, senior fellow for the Washington-based Brent Scowcroft Centre on International Security. “Some tweaks here and there should be expected, but in terms of strategic direction and scope and pace of reforms at home, none of that is likely to change because he will have to work under the same enduring constraints that [King] Abdullah had to deal with.”

Maintaining stability is the new ruler’s priority and King Salman’s first action was to establish a clear line of succession to the throne in what would be the first generational shift in more than 60 years. As the governor of Riyadh between 1962 and 2011, the new king has been at the heart of the kingdom’s government for five decades. He, more than anyone else, understands the importance of the eventual succession of a crown that since 1953 has only been worn by the sons of King Abdulaziz al-Saud, the founder of modern Saudi Arabia, also known as Ibn Saud.

In April 2014, King Abdullah appointed Prince Muqrin bin Abdulaziz, his 69-year-old half-brother, as deputy crown prince. Crown Prince Muqrin is now next in line to the throne. He is said to be a genial and well-liked member of the royal family. He was educated in the UK and has held numerous senior government posts, including the head of Saudi Arabia’s main intelligence agency.

However, as the youngest son of Ibn Saud, Crown Prince Muqrin has been chosen over several older brothers, despite having a Yemeni mother. This has led many observes to assume that his appointment was a clear signal King Abdullah was drawing a line under his own generation and ushering in the new guard to the top tier of the royal court. Exactly how popular this appointment was with the older sons of Ibn Saud is difficult to fathom. The family politics of the Al-Sauds is notoriously complex and difficult for outsiders to understand. 

Speedy appointment

Saudi Arabia’s political elite largely comprises members of the Al-Saud family. But with more than 40 branches and an estimated 15,000-plus members, the royal family is not a homogenous entity. It comprises many different viewpoints and allegiances, progresses through discussion, compromise and by finding a way of balancing conflicting interests. And, just like all governments, it progresses.

Within 12 hours of being in office, King Salman announced Interior Minister Prince Mohammed bin Nayef as Deputy Crown Prince, and in doing so named the first grandson of Ibn Saud to be included in the direct line of succession.

“Internal cohesion and national security are the new king’s most pressing priorities,” says Saab. “He’s acting with speed, so that is a good sign. He doesn’t want his adversaries – primarily Iran – to think the kingdom is vulnerable or unstable.”

It has been reported that the Allegiance Council, set up by King Abdullah in 2006 to steer the selection of future crown princes and kings, ratified the selection of Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed through a vote.

“When the Allegiance Council deliberated this, it was clearly done by majority and [Prince Mohammed bin Nayef] got his position confirmed,” says Richard Dalton, former British diplomat and associate fellow on the Middle East and North Africa for London think-tank Chatham House. “So far, no one has taken the lid off that meeting to indicate whether it was a slim or massive majority.”

The 55-year-old, US-educated prince is a relative youngster in terms of Saudi Arabia’s most senior royalty. He has vast experience in counter-terrorism. As interior minister, Prince Mohammed bin Nayef became known for an uncompromising, hardline stance against terrorism, and this is reported to have led to four assassination attempts being made against him. The most infamous was a suicide bomb attack at his home in Jeddah in 2009 that led to tighter security being placed around the prince.

Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed’s reluctance to compromise has also seen him criticised in recent months after an apparent increase in the arrests of social activists for even minor criticism of the government.

The case of Raif Badawi, a Saudi blogger imprisoned for 10 years and publicly flogged after calling for greater freedom of speech and separation of the state from the religious establishment, has been widely condemned internationally.

Badawi’s case typifies the dilemma Riyadh faces as it tries to fight terrorism, appease conservative clerics and also appeal to the growing number of citizens demanding greater reform.  

Ensuring security will be given the highest priority rather than civil liberties, and reformers can expect to see no softening in Riyadh’s intolerance of political or social dissent or in the severity of its punishments.

King Salman has previously voiced his opposition to democracy, which he has said is unworkable in the kingdom.

King Abdullah’s legacy, in terms of both investment spending and state commitment to a large public sector, as well as lavish energy subsidies, will continue. Saudi Arabia is in the middle of a huge spending programme aimed at improving social infrastructure, and this will be maintained in the short term. Progress will not slow on the vast number of education and health projects that are under way.

However, the current rate of spending, particularly on public sector salaries and energy subsidies, cannot be sustained in the long term. 

This is especially apparent when oil prices are below $50 a barrel, having plummeted from more than $110 in the space of seven months. The kingdom relies on 85 per cent of its revenues coming from oil and, while its profit margins are some of the highest in the world, it will eventually need to find other sources of income.

“They will have to address these issues, but not yet,” says Dalton. “They will wait and see which way the oil price goes and whether the global economy improves. Riyadh can sustain its current expenditure for anywhere from two to five years.”

Population boom

Some economists have said that, with an estimated 50 per cent of the population of Saudi Arabia aged under 25, Riyadh will not be able to sustain its current economic model. This will become even more acute when the current young generation start families of their own, which, in a traditional society such as Saudi Arabia, will happen sooner rather than later, fuelling an even larger population boom.

These long-term issues will be at the forefront of Princes Muqrin and Mohammed bin Nayef’s thinking as they plan for the future.

Change occurs slowly in Saudi Arabia, and even though the choice of deputy crown prince has been made, it could be another two decades before Prince Mohammed bin Nayef ascends to the throne. However, with his appointment, there is a definite feeling that a new epoch in the short history of Saudi Arabia has begun. And this time, the citizens may not be willing to wait so long for significant reforms.