Syria prepares for elections amid civil war

05 June 2014

It is widely held that President Bashar al-Assad is assured a landslide victory in Syria’s elections, but critics have declared the vote a sham

On 3 June, in the midst of civil war, Syria will hold its first presidential elections in seven years. The incumbent, Bashar al-Assad, is expected to win an overwhelming majority at the polls, the first since a new election law was introduced allowing for multiple election candidates.

Voting among Syrian populations overseas, notably refugees in Jordan and Lebanon, began in late May, with media reports showing huge crowds waving Syrian flags and apparently supporting the re-election of President al-Assad.

The pictures we see of people dancing in the street holding Syrian flags might not even be Syrians – they might be Hezbollah

David Schenker, Washington Institute for Near East Policy

Although there is little doubt about the outcome of the election, the process has been widely derided as a sham. The election law is weighted heavily in favour of the regime; voting within Syria’s borders will be confined to government-controlled areas; and it is implausible that the coverage of overseas voters is truly representative of support for Al-Assad.

Constitutional revisions

The election law, passed unanimously by parliament on 13 March, builds on constitutional revisions approved by popular referendum in 2012 that included provisions for elections to be contested in Syria for the first time in decades.

In theory, the changes are a step forward, replacing a system in which a single presidential candidate is endorsed by national referendum with multi-party elections. Standing unopposed, Al-Assad won 97.3 per cent of the referendum vote in July 2000, and 97.6 per cent in 2007.

In practice, however, the new law is no more than a smokescreen for the continued dominance of the regime. The elections are far from open and democratic, and have been widely criticised both nationally and internationally Syria as lacking legitimacy.

A total of 23 candidates submitted applications to the Supreme Constitutional Court to oppose Al-Assad, but only two of them met the requirements to stand in the polls, a spokesperson for the court announced on 4 May.

The court did not explain why the other 21 candidates were excluded, but it is no surprise that those selected to stand pose no threat to Al-Assad. The requirements for candidacy outlined in the new elections law were carefully tailored to exclude genuine opponents of the regime.

Among the provisions of the new law are that candidates must have lived continuously in Syria for at least 10 years, which excludes the considerable number of opposition politicians who either fled the country since the conflict began in March 2011 or were already in exile. One prominent coalition of opponents of the regime, the Syrian National Coalition, is based in Istanbul.

Under the new law, all candidates must also have the backing of 35 members of the People’s Council, Syria’s national parliament, in which opposition representation is scant. The last parliamentary elections, held on 7 May 2012, were the first under the 2012 constitution, allowing multiple parties to participate.

But the ruling coalition, the National Progressive Front, won 67 per cent of the seats in the 2012 poll. If sympathisers of the ruling Baathist party among the 77 independent candidates are included, supporters of the regime are estimated to make up 90 per cent of the chamber. Only one seat was won by an opposition party established after 2011, the Syrian Democratic Party.

The new law also restored the minimum age for candidates to 40, excluding those discontented young Syrians opposed to the Al-Assad dynasty and those of fighting age involved in combat against the regime. The minimum age had been reduced from 40 to 34 in 2000 to allow the 34-year-old Al-Assad to succeed his father Hafez, who had ruled the country for 30 years.

Neither of the two candidates to have successfully come through this exacting qualification process – Hassan Abdullah al-Nouri and Maher Abdul-Hafiz Hajjar – is considered to pose any threat to Al-Assad.

Handpicked opposition

Damascus-born economist Al-Nouri has a history of involvement in the regime. He has held a series of state positions, including secretary of the Damascus Chamber of Industry and minister of state for administrative development, and is now head of the National Initiative for Administration and Change.

Hajjar, born in Aleppo, is another member of the officially tolerated opposition. He joined the Syrian Communist Party in 1984, leaving in 2000 to lead Aleppo’s communists, before running in the 2012 parliamentary elections, where he was one of six successful candidates for the Popular Front for Change and Liberation.

Ironically, both candidates have expressed their support for the Al-Assad government. In a recent interview, Al-Nouri backed the president’s campaign against rebels in the country, saying all three candidates were “against terrorism,” while insisting that, if elected, he would push for greater dialogue with the West and prioritise the development of the country’s infrastructure. Hajjar has gone still further, actually endorsing Al-Assad’s campaign, according to one expert in Syrian politics.

Al-Assad has consolidated the regime’s position on the battlefield, making it clear that he’s not going anywhere

Paul Salem, Middle East Institute

“The two candidates have been handpicked by Al-Assad,” says David Schenker, director of Arab politics at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy in the US. “Al-Nouri is running on a platform of financial reform. Hajjar is a reformed Communist who has recently endorsed Al-Assad.”

If the choice of candidates standing in the elections is not enough to support suggestions that they are a sham, the lopsided nature of the voting process is likely to do so.

Expatriate vote

Whether the footage of enthusiastic support for Al-Assad among refugees in Jordan and Lebanon is genuine is also questionable. The bulk of the Syrian population in the two countries fled from attacks by the Al-Assad regime; it is unlikely they would be rushing to the polls to vote for the extension of the president’s mandate.

“The regime’s bullying of some Syrian expatriates into voting in the farcical elections is blatant political blackmail and violates all international norms,” said Badr Jamous, secretary-general of the Syrian Coalition in a recent statement by the organisation.

According to Jamous, Al-Assad’s allies in Lebanon have threatened that the names of Syrian refugees would be passed to security offices at the Syrian Embassy in Beirut and at the border crossings if they did not vote, and that identity cards had been seized pending them voting in the elections.

“The Al-Assad propaganda machine would like us all to believe that displaced Syrians and expatriates showed up in great numbers to support him, but coerced support is not any more legitimate than his presidency,” said Jamous.

“Syrians abroad in the region are being intimidated,” says Schenker. “Crowds of people are being forced out by the Muhabarat [Syrian military intelligence] in Lebanon. And the pictures we see of people dancing in the street holding Syrian flags might not even be Syrians – they might be Hezbollah, we don’t know.

“The people I spoke to in Jordan said they’re not voting because it’s a farce. Al-Assad’s opponents aren’t going to want to go to the embassies because they’re still controlled by the regime.”

Within Syria’s borders, even if opponents of the regime did want to vote in the elections, ongoing fighting would make it almost impossible. Voting will only be facilitated in government-controlled areas.

Electorial farce

Some opposition factions have threatened to forcefully disrupt the voting process in protest. Thousands of civilians fled the city of Idlib on 30 May after the Islamic Council warned it would launch attacks against the city. Other rebel groups have said they will attack Damascus during the voting period. There is already heavy fighting in Aleppo, control of which is shared between government and rebel forces.

Russia has said it plans to send monitors to the elections, but with only a few exceptions the elections do not have any legitimacy overseas. “No one is going to recognise them except Iran, Hezbollah, Russia and maybe China,” says Schenker. “It’s a farce.”

What the election does do is send a message from Al-Assad and his regime that they have no intention of stepping aside. “Al-Assad is doing this to show that he’s here to stay,” says Schenker. “If he gets 85 per cent of the vote, he can say that it’s a legitimate regime, even if the turnout is very low.”

Paul Salem, vice-president of the Middle East Institute in the US, agrees. “Al-Assad has consolidated the regime’s position on the battlefield, making it clear that he’s not going anywhere,” he says. “The elections reinforce this. It’s a signal that contrary to Geneva I [the first international peace conference on Syria in Geneva in June 2012], Al-Assad will stay on and is the centre of the regime.”

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