Tariffs are still expected to settle at 8% by the end of the year, but the journey to that point is proving to be more chaotic than previously anticipated, according to a new report from GlobalData's TS Lombard on the impact of tariffs on the global economy.

The firm has downgraded its growth outlook, citing a disorganised implementation process that has left businesses and consumers in a state of uncertainty.

While earlier forecasts suggested that tariff-related disruptions would mark the early months of the year, the reality has exceeded those expectations, creating additional challenges for the real economy.

Policymakers have been finalising tariff details up until the last minute, leaving many aspects of the impending changes unclear even as they approach implementation. This lack of clarity is expected to stifle business activity and dampen private consumption, as households brace for the financial impact of the new tariffs. With purchasing power already under pressure, many consumers are likely to increase their savings in anticipation of higher costs, further complicating the economic landscape as the year progresses.

Over a dozen Middle East and North Africa (Mena) countries will face US President Donald Trump's reciprocal tariffs – at rates varying between 10% and 41% – from 5 April.

Trump announced an executive order on 2 April regarding “regulating imports with a reciprocal tariff to rectify trade practices that contribute to large and persistent annual US goods trade deficits”.

Six of these countries – Egypt, Kuwait, Morocco, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE – face 10% tariffs, which is the minimum rate, or universal tariff, imposed on US trading partners.

Goods from Syria and Iraq face the highest tariff rates of 41% and 39%, followed by Libya and Algeria, which face tariffs of 31% and 30%, respectively.

The executive order imposes 28% tariffs on goods originating from Tunisia, 20% from Jordan and 17% from Israel.