Delays to getting Egypts biggest gas project producing will punish the Egyptian economy
The announcement from BP that negotiations to restart its $10bn North Alexandria gas project are still ongoing does not bode well for Egypts worsening gas crisis.
With estimated recoverable reserves of 5 trillion cubic feet of gas and condensate it is the only scheme that has the potential to make a serious dent in the countrys growing gap between demand for gas and domestic production.
In June Egypts Petroleum Minister Sherif Ismail said that the country is planning to import natural gas until domestic production is ramped up to sufficient levels that the country becomes self-sufficient once again.
Importing gas at international prices to be sold to consumers at subsidised prices is going to be a burden on the governments finances at a time when it can little afford extra expense.
It is currently struggling to bring down a budget deficit that came in at 12 per cent of GDP at the end of 2013.
Sherif Ismail said under his plan the period of gas importation should last no longer than five years, but it is likely to last much longer than this if Egypt doesnt prioritise projects like the West Nile Delta scheme.
As well as damaging the governments finances the gas crisis is also increasing instability in a country that is struggling to stabilise after seeing two bloody power transfers in the space of three years, with frequent electricity black-outs plaguing the country and stoking resentment against the government.
Even if Egypt pays producers international prices for gas that is produced domestically it is likely to be cheaper than the price of solving problems the country will encounter if developments like North Alexandria see further delays.
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