In the wake of November’s Opec meeting, analysts are warning that oil prices could stay low for months or even years, after dropping by more than 35 per cent since June.

Historically, extended periods of low oil prices have caused turmoil in the GCC.

After the oil price crash of 1986, Saudi Arabia was forced to cut capital spending by delaying some projects and cancelling others. A tax on foreign workers was discussed and subsidies were slashed.

When oil prices fell by 40 per cent after the Asian financial crisis of 1997 similar drastic measures were required.

This time around the bloc seems to have learned its lesson. Fiscal reserves are high and the region’s biggest economies are more than capable of running deficits to sustain spending, if needed.

The GCC is unlikely to see a repeat of the massive fiscal stimulus packages that were unleashed during the global financial crisis of late 2008/09, when the price of Brent crude oil dropped from $140 a barrel to less than $50. Rather, continued spending on capital projects is likely to give significant support to the region’s non-oil GDP growth.

The only areas of concern are the bloc’s non-Opec members: Bahrain and Oman.

Precarious public finances and ongoing political turbulence have led analysts to warn that Bahrain will require outside intervention to help maintain stability. If prices stay low for a number of years, Oman may also require support.

As the Arab uprisings of 2011 showed, discontent can be highly contagious and exactly when civil unrest will erupt is hard to predict.

Contingency packages to support the GCC’s two weaker states should be designed earlier rather than later, and focus on schemes that will help reduce overreliance on hydrocarbons, rather than merely using handouts to pacify communities.

Due to the extensive fiscal buffers that have been built up over the past 15 years, the GCC’s Opec-member states can easily afford to help their two weaker allies through the current period of lower oil revenues.