When Saudi Arabia refused a two-year seat at the UN Security Council in mid-October, it took the diplomatic world by surprise, particularly as it came after a concerted lobbying campaign by Riyadh to win the vote. Kuwait and others tried to persuade King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz al-Saud to change his mind, but to no avail.

Officially, Riyadh blamed its decision on the Security Council’s inability to deal with regional nuclear proliferation, the Syrian civil war and the Israeli-Palestinian dispute. Reading between the lines, however, many observers saw it as a rebuke to the US. Riyadh was disappointed that US President Barack Obama had decided against bombing Syria following its use of chemical weapons in August, and is also uncomfortable with his willingness to do a deal with Tehran over its nuclear programme.

Tensions high

The episode highlights how unpredictable and fluid the diplomatic landscape has become in the Middle East. The past year has seen horrific violence in Syria, tumultuous political events in Egypt and potentially equally important changes in Iran. Now, even long-standing allies such as the US and Saudi Arabia can find themselves on opposite sides of the fence.

There are 78 nationalities fighting in Syria and who knows who is fighting whom. Syria is a nightmare

Jordanian observer

The most serious issue remains the Syrian war. This has gradually mutated from a domestic uprising into a conflict with regional ramifications and is fuelling a worrying trend towards sectarianism between Sunni and Shia groups. Iran, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the Lebanon-based Shia militant group Hezbollah and myriad others have been drawn into the conflict, in what is an increasingly confusing picture. “There are 78 nationalities fighting in Syria and who knows who is fighting whom,” says one Jordanian observer. “Syria is a nightmare.”

But for all the weapons, ammunition and manpower provided by international sponsors, the pro- and anti-Al-Assad forces appear to be fighting themselves into a stalemate and a negotiated peace appears the only viable way of ending the conflict. Talks are due to be held between the Syrian government and opposition groups in Geneva on 22 January, but at the time of writing it remains unclear if everyone will be willing to turn up. Unfortunately, the most likely short-term scenario involves more death and suffering.

As the conflict continues, the prospect that the country could fracture on a more permanent basis rises. In November, one of the main Kurdish groups, the Democratic Union Party (PYD), declared autonomy for its northeast corner of the country. Turkey, for one, appears nervous about the idea of another Kurdish enclave on its borders, alongside the existing area of northern Iraq run by the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG). Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu said at a press conference on 13 November that “the PYD must not adopt an opportunist attitude” and he urged it to work with other opposition groups.

That is not the only danger the conflict presents to nearby countries, and Lebanon looks particularly vulnerable. Hezbollah is providing fighters to battle alongside Al-Assad’s forces, prompting opposition groups to launch their own attacks in Lebanon on Hezbollah and its Iranian allies. The twin bomb attack on the Iranian embassy in Beirut on 19 November was the most serious to date, but the risk of further attacks is high.

In Jordan, the presence of vast numbers of Syrian refugees represents a potent threat to the country’s already fragile economy. The UN refugee agency, the UNHCR, says it is dealing with more than 550,000 Syrian refugees in Jordan, but the true number may be more than twice that as not all those who flee across the border register with the agency.

To the east of Jordan, meanwhile, the violence in Iraq continues. Parliamentary elections are due to be held on 30 April under a recently approved election law. Among the most important legislative tasks for the new parliament will be passing an oil law to reduce the simmering tensions between Baghdad and the KRG. But more important for most Iraqis will be having a government that can provide basic services and reduce the death toll from sectarian bombings. Most of the violence happens in the centre and south of the country, but all Iraqis are concerned about the risk of it escalating further.

“We see on a daily basis bombings and explosions in Baghdad,” said Falah Mustafa Bakir, the KRG’s de facto foreign minister, in a speech at the Royal United Services Institute in London on 17 October. “We see the size of the failed state in Baghdad. That a country as rich as Iraq, having all its resources, cannot have more than four or six hours of electricity a day 10 years after the removal of Saddam Hussein is a disaster.”

North Africa

Unfortunately, there are plenty of other countries around the region that are also in various degrees of tumult, particularly in North Africa where the 2011 Arab Uprisings began.

Tunisia’s transition process stumbled badly in 2013 after a number of assassinations of high-profile figures, including Mohamed Brahmi, leader of the Movement of the People opposition party, in July. Subsequently the ruling Islamist party, Ennahda, agreed to hold fresh elections, although it is not yet clear when they might take place.

Egypt is also due to hold elections, with a parliamentary poll scheduled for February or March, followed by a presidential election in the summer. The Muslim Brotherhood’s Freedom & Justice Party will be allowed to contest the elections, according to government officials, but with the trial of ousted president Mohamed Mursi ongoing there is clearly the potential for further political problems.

Libya is in an even more confused state, with the government of Prime Minister Ali Zeidan struggling to impose its authority on large parts of the country. Armed militias remain a menace in many parts of Libya, not least in and around the capital Tripoli, and it is far from clear that Zeidan has the ability to bring them under control.

To the west, Algeria and Morocco have been relatively quiet in recent years, due to a deft mixture of repression and reform by their leaders. Of the two, Morocco looks the more stable, while change is on the horizon in Algiers. The long-serving President Abdelaziz Bouteflika appears keen to stand for a fourth term in office in April, but there are serious doubts about the health of the 76-year-old, after he spent several months in a Paris hospital in 2013.

Leaders in the Gulf have also managed to stave off threats to their rule, although in the case of Bahrain that has been at the expense of its economy and its previous reputation as one of the more liberal corners of the region. As with the far more violent situation in Syria, a negotiated deal looks the best way to resolve the problems in the small island kingdom, but Saudi Arabia’s support for the ruling Al-Khalifa family means the authorities have little motivation to compromise.

The level of domestic opposition in other Gulf states has remained far more limited, but the authorities are aware of the potential for discord over some issues, including the lack of housing and jobs. As long as oil prices stay high, governments will be able to afford the lavish welfare provisions that locals have grown accustomed to, but if oil prices fall for any sustained period of time the fiscal pressures will rise.

The idea of subsidies being trimmed has already been floated by the authorities in Kuwait, but such policies are fraught with political difficulties. If more locals could be persuaded to leave the public sector and take on private sector jobs that would help, but that too is difficult to bring about. Saudi Arabia forced more than 1 million foreign workers to leave the kingdom in 2013, but it seems unlikely that locals will rush to do the menial jobs that have been vacated as a result of the exodus. Unless other foreign workers can be brought in to fill the gaps the authorities may well have reason to regret their policy and be forced to reverse it.

Yemen transition

Many of the expelled workers came from Yemen, where the country has been in a delicate state since President Ali Abdullah Saleh was convinced to stand down in 2012, and the return of more unemployed locals will not help matters. A two-year transition process was due to end with elections in February 2014, but it is facing delays and serious disagreements remain over the best route forwards. Among the most contentious issues is whether Yemen will remain unified or break into two separate entities as many in the south would like.

Any breakthrough threatens to shift the balance of power in the region in a way that makes others uncomfortable

One of the few bright spots among all the region’s problems is the recent deal that hopes to resolve the long-running stand-off over Tehran’s nuclear programme. An interim six-month agreement was signed in late November between Tehran and the Western powers that sees certain sanctions lifted in return for Iran halting uranium enrichment above 5 per cent. Together with President Rouhani’s more orthodox domestic policies, it could lead to improvements across the board for Iran’s economy and, if trade picks up with neighbouring countries, that boost could be felt around the Gulf.

But any breakthrough also threatens to shift the balance of power in the region in a way that makes others uncomfortable. Saudi Arabia and Israel are both unhappy with what they see as the US’ overly trusting relationship with Tehran, and other GCC states share their concerns. That could lead to an interesting new diplomatic axis in the region, in which Israel and the GCC work with a common purpose in dealing with Iran, although their deep-seated differences over the Palestinian issue means the prospects for this are limited.

The suggestion of such an understanding between Tel Aviv and Riyadh in the UK’s Sunday Times newspaper in November drew a rapid denial from the Saudi government. Nonetheless, other diplomats in the region suggest such talk is credible.

The fact that some intriguing new relationships are being formed, just as other long-standing ones appear under threat, underlines the dynamic nature of Middle East politics these days. Alongside the threat of other countries fracturing, such as Syria, Yemen and even Libya, it makes the region appear even more unpredictable than ever.