Turbulent times mean mixed fortunes for Yemen

07 October 2015

Ongoing military and civil conflicts stem economic progress

$3.6bn

Yemen’s financial reserves

$164

2015 Government budget breakeven oil price

Yemen’s gross reserves have experienced mixed fortunes since 2008, due to the country’s turbulent geopolitics.

The ongoing military and civil conflicts in the country means neither its central bank nor the IMF has official or updated economic data that extends into 2014 or beyond.

The fiscal deficit in 2013, the latest year for which figures are available, was estimated at 6.9 per cent of the country’s nominal GDP of about $40.4bn.

The deficit that year dropped by 0.6 per cent, which was its lowest annual level for many years, according to the IMF. This was achieved through expenditure restraint and an increase in non-hydrocarbon revenue. Subsidies and capital spending were reduced, while an increase in civil servants’ allowance agreed in 2012 was not implemented in 2013.

Yemen’s gross financial reserves were estimated to have declined by 26.5 per cent in 2014, from the previous year’s estimates of $4.9bn.

Yemen20142015f2016f2017f
Fiscal breakeven oil price160164163na
Nominal GDP ($bn)45.55153.456.6
Real GDP growth (annual change, %)1.94.64.75.2
Government revenue (% of GDP)23.922.722.923
Government total expenditure (% of GDP)29.327.727.627.3
General government gross debt  48.247.44847.8
Current account balance (% of GDP)-1.3-1.1-1.4-1.4
Inflation (%)13988
f=Forecast. Sources: IMF; World Economic Outlook Database

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