Ever since Dubai secured the rights to host the 2020 Expo in December 2013 the emirate’s construction market has been eagerly waiting to be inundated with tendering and contract awards.

After a disappointing 2015, the total value of awards made during the first quarter of 2016 suggests that the anticipated flurry in construction activity has now arrived. The market returned to positive growth after recording its second-best performing quarter since 2008 with $6.6bn of new contract awards.

With awards being made, the question that construction companies are now asking is how long can the emirate keep awarding new contracts?

One way to predict how long the period of heightened and tendering will last is to work backwards from the Expo opening date of October 2020.

According to data from regional projects tracker MEED Projects, construction contracts valued over $100m completed over the past two years took an average of 1,407 days to complete. That is nearly 47 months or one month short of four years. That means for a contract to be completed in time for the Expo opening the contract needs to be let in November 2016 – just six months from now.

More favourable statistics can be used. The mode, or the completion time most commonly achieved in the MEED Projects data is 802 days, which is nearly 27 months or two and a quarter years. That means that contracts need to be placed by July 2018, which gives developers nearly two more years to complete their projects (meaning a start date for construction of June 2018).

Regardless of what statistic is used, they give a range of six months to two and a half years, and some contractors in Dubai have started to think about the implications of a slowdown in awards. “I expect to be hiring a lot of people for the next one or two years, and they releasing a lot of people as work on projects is completed ahead of the Expo,” says an international construction company working in Dubai.

A paring of resources could well be prevented if Dubai has a clear strategy on what the focus for new projects will be after 2020. The most obvious development is the $33bn expansion of Al-Maktoum International airport, which is said to have tentative opening date for phase one of 2025.

As mid-2018 draws closer, the construction sector will become increasingly concerned about what follows Expo. Dubai typically answers these questions sooner rather than later, so expect a major announcement in early 2018.