Egypt falls into balance of payments deficit

28 March 2012

Political tensions in Egypt threaten much-needed IMF loan deal

Egypt’s Central Bank has issued figures on the country’s balance of payments position, which indicate a sharp deterioration in the country’s capital account.

In the first half of the fiscal year 2011/12, Egypt’s transactions with other countries gave rise to an overall balance of payments deficit of $8bn, against an overall surplus of $571.7m a year earlier.

In the same period, Egypt’s current account ran a higher deficit of $4.1bn, against $2.6bn a year earlier. Meanwhile, the capital and financial account registered a net outflow of $2.4bn, against a net inflow of $2.8bn.

Egypt’s net international reserves have decreased as a result of “the dramatic events that Egypt and the Arab region [have] been through, which continued to weigh heavily on tourism revenues and foreign investment inflows”, according to the bank.

The volume of tourists has fallen 12.7 per cent since the revolution. Additionally, those visiting Egypt now are spending a lot less than previous visitors. Between October and December 2011, tourists spent an average of $69.6 a day. The average daily spend in the same period in the previous year was $85. Revenue streams from the Suez Canal are up, however, with the value of receipts climbing by 7 per cent to $2.7bn.

Egypt recorded a net outflow of foreign direct investment (FDI) to the tune of $418.1m in the first six months of the financial year. It reflected the shift in the direction of investments in the oil sector from a net inflow of $607.2m to a net outflow of $2.1bn.

Egypt’s balance of payments position has been a concern for many months. A balance of payments surplus worth less than three months of imports is considered dangerously low. Egypt has now passed that point and observers agree swift action is required to put the country back on course.

However, relations are deteriorating between the dominant political party, led by the Muslim Brotherhood, and the military council, which continues to preside through the transition of power to democracy. Egypt is relying on securing a loan from the Washington-headquartered IMF to boost its economy, but this is yet to be agreed and the anticipated bounce-back may not be as dramatic as hoped.

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