In Cairo’s Tahrir Square, the focal point of protests that led to the overthrow of Hosni Mubarak in February 2011, fireworks, cheers and gunshots greeted the announcement on 24 June that Mohamed Mursi, the Muslim Brotherhood’s candidate, had won Egypt’s presidential elections.

Just 18 months ago, Mursi was a prisoner of the Mubarak regime; now he has emerged as his successor. Nothing else quite demonstrates the stunning turnaround in the history of the Middle East’s most populous nation.

During the revolution, nearly 900 people were killed, while 6,000 were injured. The political turmoil has left Egypt’s economy reeling. Foreign exchange reserves have fallen to about $17bn, less than three months’ import cover, and investment and export levels remain weak. There are growing suspicions that the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (Scaf) may attempt to cling to power, rather than make way for a democratic government.

Mursi’s victory will provide some assurances that Scaf is prepared to relinquish power. Unfortunately, it is not the final part of Egypt’s democratic transition. Scaf has weakened the powers of the president and, in mid-June, it dissolved parliament and gave itself powers to write a new constitution and the budget. It also made the army exempt from control by the president.

Scaf is scheduled to relinquish control in July, but after the dissolution of parliament it is unclear how long the military will really hold on to power.

At the moment, Mursi is in charge of Egypt only in name. He is not in control of the military, will not be responsible for writing the new constitution, will have only limited powers over the budget and lacks a parliament to implement new legislation.

Mursi’s victory is welcome news, but Egypt’s transition still has a long way to go.