Analysis on political unrest in the Middle East and how the governments have responded
Headers in the fact files below link through to the MEED country profile for that country
Algeria
Sporadic demonstrations have taken place since early January, initially in response to rising food prices. Recent marches have been organised by a coalition of political parties and other groups under the name, the National Coordination for Change and Democracy. They are calling for an end to Abdelaziz Bouteflika’s presidency and say they will continue to hold weekly protests until their demands are met. Security forces have managed to control the protests and they have not been a major threat to the government yet.
Government actions:
- Removal of the state of emergency introduced in 1992
- Lower customs duties, including a 41 per cent reduction in taxes on sugar and other foodstuffs until August
Political risk assessment
Vulnerable to ongoing protests, particularly as the government has now made concessions, but Algerians will be reluctant to see violent protests due to country’s bloody history.
Bahrain
Manama’s initial no-tolerance attitude to the demonstrations resulted in a dramatic escalation in the scale of the protests. The violent response from authorities only stopped after Crown Prince Salman ordered security forces to withdraw so he could start national dialogue with all parties. Protests have continued since the beginning of the national dialogue on 19 February without state interference.
Government actions:
- A one-off gift of BD1,000 ($2,650) to every household
- A 7.7 per cent, or BD155.2m, increase in food subsidies
- Plans to liberalise the country’s media law
- A cabinet reshuffle in late February
Political risk assessment
There is likely to be a shift towards constitutional reform including more a representative and empowered parliament, constitutional monarchy and a reshuffle of government. There is the risk of sectarian violence destabilising the reform movement.
Egypt
The country is being run by the Supreme Council of Egyptian Armed Forces, who have promised to hold elections within six months of taking power on 12 February or to step down. Protests continued following the deposal of Hosni Mubarak, and, on 3 March, led to the resignation of Prime Minister Ahmed Shafiq. US- trained former transport minister Essam Sharaf has been asked by the military to form a government. Opposition groups say they will continue to protest until a new government is formed with no links to the previous regime.
Government actions:
- A 15 per cent increase in wages for public sector workers
- An additional $800m-$1.2bn promised for food subsidies, up from original forecasts of $430m-700m
- A referendum on changes to the constitution is planned for 19 March, parliamentary elections for June, and a presidential election in August
Political risk assessment
Egypt is key to the wider stability of the region and the policies of the new government will be eagerly awaited. At this point, an obvious leader has yet to emerge and the Muslim Brotherhood is not appearing to exploit the situation. With no clear leader, there is a significant risk that the political uncertainty will continue beyond the elections. Growth forecasts for Egypt are already being reversed due to the disruption to the economy.
Iran
Further demonstrations were held in early March in central Tehran to demand the release of two opposition figures, Mehdi Karroubi and Mir Hossein Mousavi. The unrest is seen as a continuation of the protests that followed the 2009 presidential election.
Government actions:
- The government has not announced any measures to quell protests, instead it has banned local media from covering the protests
Political risk assessment
The government of President Ahmadinejad succeeded in stamping out the protests in 2009 and looks likely to do the same again.
Iraq
Although Iraq has a democratically elected parliament, it has also been the scene of protests led by people angry at the government’s failure to provide basic services.
Government actions:
- Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki gave ministers 100 days from 27 February to improve or face dismissal
Political risk assessment
Further protests are likely as the government struggles to provide security, clean water, electricity and jobs. But within the context of change the country has endured in recent years, the impact will be minimal.
Jordan
Demonstrators took to the streets in January to complain about high unemployment and rising food prices. Protests continue, with thousands taking part in a demonstration in Amman in early March calling for political reform.
Government actions:
- Public sector employees and servicemen have been granted a JD20 ($29) a month salary increase
- On 31 January, King Abdullah replaced his government
- A 6 per cent sales tax on kerosene and diesel has been removed and the tax on unleaded fuel has been reduced from 18 per cent to 12 per cent
Gas cylinders will continue to be subsidised at a cost of JD100m
Political risk assessment
Protests have failed to gain the scale and momentum seen elsewhere in the region and King Abdullah is popular, but may have to concede more ground.
Kuwait
Protests broke out in Kuwait on 19 February led by stateless locals, known as the Bidun Jinsiya (Bedouin without nationality). Without citizenship, but from nomadic tribes within the borders of Kuwait, they are denied free education, healthcare and employment opportunities.
Government actions:
- A $3,572 one-off food allowance payment to all citizens
- A $930m package of free food distribution lasting for 14 months
- Monthly salaries for employees in the public and private sector were raised by $440 for Kuwaiti citizens, and $183 for non-Kuwaitis, adding $3m to the budget
- Utility bills and traffic fines reduced
Political risk assessment
As a constitutional monarchy with an elected parliament, political debate is often heated in Kuwait and obstructive to the process of government. The protests are unlikely to create wider disruption than Kuwait is used to.
Lebanon
Protests have been led by Sunni Muslims, who have been angered at attempts by Hezbollah to form a government. In mid-December, Saad Hariri’s national unity government collapsed following a defection of a number of MPs to the Hezbollah-backed camp. Some commentators have described it as a Hezbollah coup. Although not directly linked to the protests in the rest of the region, the potential for unrest remains high as Prime Minister-elect Najib Mikati struggles to form a new government.
Government actions:
- The Economy Ministry purchased a three-month supply of wheat costing $9.2m
Political risk assessment
Sharing many of the drivers behind protests elsewhere in the region, such as the high level of unemployment, Lebanon could well face destabilising protests in the future. However, a greater threat to stability is likely to come from disagreements between the country’s political and religious blocs.
Libya
Muammar Qaddafi’s unrelenting response to attempts to oust him from power threaten to plunge the country into civil war. Recent reports indicate gains for government forces.
Government actions:
- Removal of taxes and custom duties on foods, including wheat, rice, vegetable oil, sugar and infant formula
Political risk assessment
The uprising in Libya shows no signs of reaching a quick conclusion. The UN has imposed sanctions and is looking at further intervention to stop the killings, including a no-fly zone. The situation is extremely volatile and is likely to escalate in the coming weeks.
Morocco
The opposition is calling for Morocco to become a constitutional monarchy, but King Muhammad IV instead wants to pursue a slower pace of reform.
Government actions:
- MD15bn ($1.8bn) added to the subsidy fund to counter a global increase in commodity prices
- Social and Economic Council has been created to advise government on reforms
- Commitment to constitutional reforms
Political risk assessment
The king’s popularity and the relative openness of Moroccan society means it is unlikely to see disruptive protests.
Oman
Demonstrators are demanding an end to corruption, better distribution of oil revenues and an elected council of ministers. Several protesters were killed in sporadic protests.
Government actions:
- Minimum wage for nationals in the private sector raised by RO200 ($520) a month
- Unemployment benefits of $390 a month
- Cabinet reshuffle
Political risk assessment
A GCC fund to offer financial aid to Oman and Bahrain has been mooted. The aim of introducing elected ministers rather than the removal of Sultan Qaboos means protests should not result in upheaval.
Qatar
There have not been any protests in Qatar so far. A Facebook group is calling for demonstrations to be held on 16 March and the removal of the emir. However a protest originally planned for 27 February failed to win widespread support. Qatar’s successful bid to stage the 2022 World Cup saw scenes of jubilation on the streets of Doha just three months ago. The euphoria has yet to die down.
Government actions:
- None so far, although the Prime Minister Sheikh Hamad bin Jassem bin Jaber al-Thani said in early March that long delayed elections to the consultative council would take place “soon”
Political risk assessment
With one of the highest per capita gross domestic product in the world, Qatar is considered to be the most stable country in the region and unlikely to experience any significant protests.
Saudi Arabia
A limited number of protests have already occurred in Saudi Arabia, but they have so far remained small. A ‘Day of Rage’ is planned for 11 March and the Facebook group behind the protests has more than 30,000 supporters. In early March, the Interior Ministry announced a ban on protests.
Government actions:
- A package of measures valued at about $36bn, including unemployment benefits, extension of inflation allowances, additional funding for housing schemes, and financial support for overseas students
Political risk assessment
In the wake of a government warning, mass protests seem unlikely in the kingdom in the short term. Momentum has been building, however, and if the demonstrations planned for 11 March materialise and are met with a violent response, it is more likely to increase demands for change than temper protesters, as happened in Bahrain.
Syria
Protests began in Syria on 26 January when Hasan Ali Akleh set himself on fire, mirroring the beginning of the uprising in Tunisia. Demonstrations grew slowly during February, with police reacting quickly to any sign of unrest and protesters reporting being beaten and arrested. President Bashar al-Assad, while declaring that Syria was immune from protests, said in late January that it was time to reform.
Government actions:
- A $250m National Fund for Social Subsidies has been established to distribute subsidies of up to $75 a month to Syrian families
- A further $320m in subsidies made available for heating costs and lower prices
Political risk assessment
A coalition of Syrian activists, called the Damascus Declaration for National Democratic Change, is continuing to call for political reforms and a Facebook page is calling for further protests on 15 March.
Tunisia
Demonstrations have continued in Tunisia even after President Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali’s resignation on 14 January. The caretaker government no longer contains members of the old regime.
The interim government’s action:
- The secret police has been disbanded
- Elections have been called for 24 July
Political risk assessment
With ‘clean hands’ now in charge of Tunisia, the election date set, and the dreaded secret police disempowered, the Jasmine revolution appears to have been a success. Managing a smooth transition to democracy will be crucial, however, as the opposition now knows the power of protest.
UAE
Protests are planned for 25 March by a Facebook group. Activists are calling for a democratically elected Federal National Council (FNC).
Government actions:
- The number of Emiratis who can vote for members of the FNC has been extended, but it remains a tiny fraction of the local population
- In early March, the federal government promised to invest $1.5bn in infrastructure in the poorer northern emirates
Political risk assessment
It is unlikely there will be significant protests as the largest emirates enjoy a high standard of living and a vibrant economy.
Yemen
Protests started in mid-January in the capital Sanaa demanding a change of government. They have since grown in both size and frequency.
Government actions:
- The salaries of military personnel were increased at a cost of $3.4m
- President Ali Abdullah Saleh announced on 2 February that he would not run for reelection in 2013
Political risk assessment
Protests are likely to continue while a group of opposition parties, tribal sheikhs and scholars negotiate with President Saleh for him to transfer power to government institutions.
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