In October 2011, Qatari Emir Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa Al-Thani announced that elections would be held for the first time for the country’s Shura Council in June 2013. Sheikh Hamad said locals would have the opportunity to vote for 30 candidates to serve on the advisory body, the Shura Council, while another 15 would be appointed.

Since then, however, there has been no news concerning the elections. As of early May 2013, it looks increasingly unlikely that any elections will take place next month.

“Elections in June were mooted in 2011, but since then I have heard nothing,” says David Roberts, director of research body, the Royal United Services Institute, Qatar. “The elections have been postponed several times now and while autumn may be plausible, it is equally plausible they might be postponed for a year.”

Apolitical population

Despite there being no concrete timescale for the elections and no announcements relating to them from Qatar’s government since 2011, it does not mean they will not take place. Free elections for the Shura Council are enshrined in Qatar’s 2003 constitution, which means Doha is obliged to hold them in the future.

The unlikelihood of imminent elections raises questions of how interested Qataris, who rank among the richest citizens in the world, are in the democratic process. It also raises the question of how much real power an absolute monarchy is prepared to offer elected rather than appointed officials.

“Many of the ruling elite would dispute the notion that Qataris are apolitical,” says Roberts. “But Qataris are generally not politically inclined. This could be because they are, in the most part, rich, but also you need to remember that most Qataris are very pleased with the leadership and the job it is doing.”

In a survey conducted by the Social & Economic Survey Research Institute (Sesri) in 2011, questions were put to Qataris and expatriates to gauge their interest in both local and regional politics.

A total of 57 per cent of the Qataris surveyed said they were interested in politics and 50 per cent stated they regularly followed the news. When quizzed about local and regional politics, 59 per cent of Qataris answered at least three of the four questions posed to them correctly. This compares favourably to the 31 per cent of expatriates who achieved the same results.

When questioned about Qatar’s national priorities, the overwhelming majority of locals believed that increasing economic growth should be the main focus over the next 10 years. The next highest-ranked priority – voted for by 22 per cent of Qataris surveyed – was having more say in how the country is run.

In the case of personal priorities, the main focus for locals was again the economy, with 45 per cent stating that curbing inflation should be the priority. This was closely followed by maintaining order by 37 per cent of respondents. Having more say in how the country was run and more freedom were the priorities for 13 per cent and 4 per cent respectively.

Many of the ruling elite would dispute … that Qataris are apolitical. But Qataris are generally not politically inclined

David Roberts, Royal United Services Institute

Despite the apparent lack of interest in elections and the fact Qatar is an absolute monarchy, 78 per cent of Qataris surveyed stated they strongly agreed or agreed that democracy is the best system of governance. A total of 79 per cent also stated they believed democracy to be very important or important.

How these findings translate into the everyday lives of Qataris is difficult to gauge, especially when it seems likely the Shura Council elections will not take place in the short term.

Qatar has a small indigenous population with only 250,000 locals in a total population swiftly approaching 2 million people.

The gas-rich country has the highest per capita gross domestic product in the world, which is forecast to hit nearly $100,000 in 2013. This equates to a wealthy population and a government that is investing heavily in healthcare, infrastructure and education.

Local influence

Qatar has always been regarded as a closed country and, alongside Saudi Arabia, is one of only two Wahhabi states in the world. Wahhabism is one of the strictest sects in Islam and being able to open up the country to both investment and a vast foreign workforce is a balancing act the emir and his government pay careful attention to.

“There is virtually no chance of any kind of revolution ever happening in Qatar,” says Roberts. “But the small local population means that any unpopular decision made by the government will move from majlis to majlis, informal social gatherings, and soon be heard by the Doha power base.”

There have been two recent examples of unpopular policies either considered or implemented by the government that have since been reconsidered after not finding favour with locals.

Since Qatar won the right to host the 2022 Fifa football World Cup, the country has come under greater international scrutiny. Several issues, especially the way it treats low-status migrant workers, have been flagged as areas where improvement is needed.

The sponsorship of workers is called the Kefala system and its use is widespread in most GCC countries. Workers require a local sponsor to not only gain a work permit, but also require that sponsor’s permission to leave Qatar. The system has led to reports of workers being forced to work seven days a week, their pay falling into massive arrears and of not being allowed to terminate their employment.

Slow change

About 86 per cent of migrant labourers work six days a week and only 4 per cent work five days. A total of 91 per cent of migrant labourers have also surrendered their passports to their respective employers. 

These issues have led to the Kefala system being decried as 21st century slavery by human rights groups. It also does not fit with the image of being at the forefront of Middle East innovative thinking that Qatar’s ruling elite has been working hard to promote globally.

Changes to the system have been under consideration since 2010, but they have been met with fierce resistance from Qataris, of which 98 per cent employ a live-in housemaid and 50 per cent employ at least two servants.

The local business community has also opposed any changes to the system and a Sesri study actually found that 30 per cent wanted the Kefala system strengthened. This hostility to change has been heard by the emir and his government and Qatar’s Labour Ministry admitted that any changes “must go slowly”.

Another issue arose in 2012, when Qatar’s Supreme Education Council decreed Arabic should become Qatar University’s official teaching language. This followed disquiet among the local population who were fearful the country’s Arabic-speaking heritage was in jeopardy after several years of students being taught most courses in English. 

If everything is going well, [Qataris] may ask themselves why should they embrace democracy

David Roberts, Royal United Services Institute

The decision was taken despite it going against the ruling elite’s policy of transforming Qatar into an regional education hub with a strong emphasis on English-language curriculums. For Qatar’s rulers to acquiesce to such demands belies the image of the local population having no say in how the country is governed.

“Qataris do have some influence, but that is not to say that if the changes had taken place there would have been any form of unrest,” says Roberts. “The emir takes his role as ruler extremely seriously and, as such, is prepared to listen when people are unhappy. He does not want to lose his people, but the prospect of revolution is extremely small in the country.”

With such a heavily outnumbered local population, protecting social and cultural norms has become an issue Qataris are prepared to fight for – and this has been acknowledged by the emir.

The unlikelihood of unrest is reflected in the Sesri survey of 2011 that stated locals have high levels of confidence in local institutions. The police and army both recorded approval ratings of 87 per cent, with the courts and Shura Council rating at 72 per cent and 67 per cent respectively.

Where all of these issues leave the Shura Council elections is known only to the emir and his small coterie of advisors and politicians. The Shura Council is only as powerful as its members. With the standard of living being so high in Qatar it is unlikely any member, elected or otherwise, would upset the ruling elite by trying to push through unpopular laws. Exactly how much control a ruler with almost two decades of unquestioned power would be willing to allow elected officials is also up for debate.

Democratic engagement

“A good question to ask is how much does Qatar really want to engage in elections,” says Roberts. “They will look at the problems an elected government is causing in Kuwait and how that economy has stagnated and it is likely that they will not want to emulate that in Qatar. If everything is going well, they may ask themselves why should they embrace democracy.”

Qatar’s newfound global fame means it now comes under the same sort of scrutiny that was once only reserved for Dubai. This has resulted in several critical newspaper articles in renowned titles such as the New York Times and it means that anything Doha commits to is now expected to happen. 

The Shura Council elections will happen, but are unlikely any time soon. It seems the lead of the Labour Ministry is being followed and plans to stage them have also been stamped “must go slowly”.