While the oil and gas operations of the Middle East’s biggest producers are dramatically curtailed by the ongoing conflict sparked by the US and Israel’s attack on Iran, producers in the US are likely to experience windfall profits.

So far, the list of oil and gas assets in the Mena region that have been disrupted by the conflict is long and includes facilities in all of the GCC nations as well as Iraq and Iran itself.

On top of the oil fields and refineries that have been shut, either due to direct attacks by Iran or due to concerns of a potential attack, about 20 million barrels of oil a day (b/d) of production has been removed from the global market by the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

The disruption to global oil and gas supplies caused by the Iran conflict has driven global oil prices up by around 15%, with Brent crude oil briefly rising above $85 a barrel on 3 March, the highest it has been since July 2024.

This has created optimism amongst investors about the outlook for US oil companies.

Texas-headquartered ExxonMobil made $56bn in profits in 2022 after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine created a sustained period of higher oil prices.

It was a record year for the company and it is possible that it will see a similar bump in profits this year, if oil prices remain high.

Shale oil producers in the US are ramping up production in order to cash in on higher oil prices, according to the Paris-based International Energy Agency (IEA).

Recently drilled shale wells could add around 240,000 b/d of oil supply in May and an additional 400,000 b/d could be added by US shale producers in the second half of the year, according to a document circulated by the IEA and cited by the Financial Times.

The impact of the Iran conflict on the price of liquified natural gas (LNG) has been even more pronounced than oil, with many natural gas benchmarks hitting multi-year highs.

The Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) rose by 55% hitting its highest levels since fuel markets spiked following Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

One of the key factors that helped push prices up so high, was Qatar, the world’s second biggest LNG producer stopping exports on 2 March due to Iranian attacks on several facilities.

It is thought that Qatar will take at least several weeks before it can restart exports from its liquefaction terminals.

Not only will time be required to make sure the export route through the Strait of Homuz is secure, the process of restarting LNG export terminals is gradual.

They require a slow restart process to avoid damaging the cryogenic equipment, which cools the natural gas to around -160C.

On top of this, LNG trains need to be brought online sequentially and there are a total of 14 trains at Qatar’s Ras Laffan hub.

While the world’s second-biggest producer of LNG is likely to be out of action for some time to come, the US, which is the world’s biggest LNG producer, is already operating at near full capacity and taking advantage of the higher price environment.

Cheniere and Venture Global, the two biggest US producers of LNG, have both seen their share prices soar amid the ongoing conflict with Iran.

Cheniere shares are up by 18% since the start of February, and the share price of Venture Global has risen by 12% over the same period.

The extent of both the additional revenues made of the US companies and the loss of revenues incurred in the Middle East’s oil and gas sector is likely to depend on how long the disruption related to the Iran conflict goes on for.

If the disruption goes on for an extended period of time and significant long-term damage is done to Middle East oil and gas infrastructure, US-based oil and gas companies may end up recording another year of record profits.