Confidence among UAE traders grows

08 April 2014

India and China will remain the UAE’s fastest-growing trade routes

Confidence among UAE businesses about the prospects for short-term trade has reached highs not seen since 2009, according to research from HSBC.

This growing confidence is fuelled by rising demand from global markets, with Asian countries being the main trading partners of those UAE companies surveyed by the bank.

India and China will remain the UAE’s fastest-growing trade routes up until 2030, with trade rising by 10 per cent a year. Demand from Turkey and Saudi Arabia is also set to grow.

The country’s economic growth and planned increases in investment in key sectors such as infrastructure, construction, tourism, retail and technology are also cementing the country as a global trade hub.

Dubai’s successful bid to host the Expo 2020 was also cited as a factor in boosting confidence levels and will play a role in driving growth in the UAE’s non-oil sectors.

More than 83 per cent of respondents participating in HSBC’s trade confidence index said they expect trade volumes to increase in the next six months, with almost half saying they predict a “significant” pick up. According to the trade index, confidence jumped 9 points to reach 141 this half.

In contrast, confidence levels in Saudi Arabia have remained broadly unchanged since the last survey in the second half of 2013, dropping by one point to 126. Although still above average, the confidence levels have remained steady, in part due to a weaker oil market.

In line with trends seen in the UAE, Asian countries remain the key trading partners of those surveyed, although Europe scored highly for construction-related trade.

HSBC’s research also surveyed trade confidence levels in Egypt, where businesses are far less positive than their GCC counterparts. Due to the continued political uncertainty regarding the leadership coupled with economic stagnation, trade confidence levels fell by 12 points to hit 99 points, below the neutral line.

Yet, HSBC forecasts that Egypt’s long-term trade potential remains positive and that export growth will begin to recover towards the end of 2014 as the country benefits from the inflows of Gulf aid. This scenario is dependent on there being no further deterioration of the political situation.

In terms of markets, India will continue to be Egypt’s key export destination until 2030, while the US, Turkey and Saudi Arabia will remain important bilateral partners.

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