A recently published report by GlobalData forecasts that annual spending on global port projects could reach $64.5bn in 2025 and more than $73.5bn in 2026.

The pipeline of upcoming projects has a combined value of $533.9bn, up from $499.5bn at the end of October 2024. The largest regional pipeline is in Southeast Asia, totalling $113.9bn, with $59.7bn in the execution stage. The Middle East and North Africa (Mena) region accounts for the second-largest pipeline, valued at $79.6bn, with 89.7% of the projects by value in the execution stage. The value of execution projects tracked in South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa is $31.7bn and $29.5bn, respectively, accounting for 42.9% and 49.8% of projects at the execution stage.

Globally, the project pipeline is dominated by schemes in the later stages of development, with 65.3% of projects either in the pre-execution or execution stage, amounting to $348.7bn in total value. Of this amount, $264.2bn is in the execution stage and $84.5bn is in the pre-execution stages, which comprise design, tender and award. Projects in the early stages account for 34.7% of the pipeline by value, reflecting projects in the pre-planning and planning stages.

Port projects are driven by global trade. In December 2024, the World Trade Organisation (WTO) reported a significant rebound in global merchandise trade, which grew by 3.3% on a year-on-year (YoY) basis in the third quarter of 2024. This growth follows a decline of 1.1% in 2023, marking a positive shift in global trade dynamics.

The long-term outlook remains optimistic, with the WTO estimating that merchandise trade volume will grow by 3% YoY in 2025, an increase from the annual growth of 2.7% in 2024. This positive trend is supported by recent global investments in port infrastructure, which are crucial for facilitating trade.

The Washington-based IMF predicts that future trade growth will be concentrated in Southeast Asia, South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa. The IMF expects China's influence on global trade growth to diminish as trade becomes more diversified across various countries. Given the importance of global trade integration for economic growth and development, short- to medium-term investment in ports in these regions will be crucial for future expansion.

The macroeconomic environment presents several downside risks. These risks are primarily due to a heavy reliance on dollar-denominated debt and foreign investment. In addition, regional conflicts, geopolitical tensions, tariff wars and policy uncertainty pose significant threats to the forecast.

For instance, an escalation of conflict in the Middle East could disrupt shipping and increase energy prices, given the region's significance in petroleum production. Moreover, greater investment in port infrastructure is expected to be necessary in advanced economies in the coming years due to rising long-term demand. Addressing inefficiencies at ports that lead to bottlenecks and significant disruptions is also essential.

READ MEED’s YEARBOOK 2025

MEED’s 16th highly prized flagship Yearbook publication is available to read, offering subscribers analysis on the outlook for the Mena region’s major markets.

Published on 31 December 2024 and distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the MEED Yearbook 2025 includes: