The latest round of job cuts in Qatar’s health sector could signal that Qatari policymakers are expecting the country’s population to peak sooner than previously expected.

Since global oil prices started their decline in June 2014 Qatar has seen thousands of jobs cut in the energy sector as projects stalled and oil companies, in both the public and private sector, looked to cut spending.

On 27 January the job-cutting spread to the healthcare sector, with Qatar’s Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani announcing that both Hamad Medical Corporation and the Primary Health Care Corporation would be reorganised.

In excess of 1,000 job cuts are expected including nurses and pharmacists.

The spread of job cuts from the energy sector to healthcare is likely to be a bet by policymakers on increasing migration and declining demand for medical services.

Qatar’s rapid economic growth over the last decade has been accompanied by rapid population growth, with labourers and white collar workers flooding into the country to work in a job market driven by oil and gas activity and large infrastructure projects.

On 20 October 2015 the government announced that the country’s population had grown by more than 700,000 in the last five years, an expansion of more than 40 per cent.

Over recent years the rate of Qatar’s population growth has slowed and the Ministry of Development, Planning and Statistics said in October that it expected the country’s population to peak in 2017.

Since October OPEC’s oil basket price has declined by more than 40 per cent, falling from $45 a barrel to $26.37 a barrel in January.

This is certain to weigh on the country’s oil and gas economy, and could spark more energy sector job cuts, pushing up the number of expats leaving the country.

Over recent years large capital projects have helped to drive double digit growth in Qatar’s non-hydrocarbon economy.

Though the non-hydrocarbon economy is likely to remain relatively robust over coming years due to continuing work on large projects that form part of the country’s National Vision 2030, it is still likely to be negatively impacted by government efforts to trim spending.

Predicting just how much the wider economy and migration will be impacted by low oil prices and government efforts to minimise the budget deficit remains difficult but, with oil and gas still contributing around half of the country’s nominal GDP, the country’s decline is likely to occur sooner and accelerate faster than previously expected.